{"id":3687,"date":"2020-10-02T19:14:46","date_gmt":"2020-10-02T18:14:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3687"},"modified":"2021-11-09T12:38:41","modified_gmt":"2021-11-09T11:38:41","slug":"vol-6-iss-3-2020","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3687","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-social-links alignright is-layout-flex wp-block-social-links-is-layout-flex\">\n\n<li class=\"wp-social-link wp-social-link-facebook  wp-block-social-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/journaloftourismheritageandservicesmarketing\/\" class=\"wp-block-social-link-anchor\"><svg width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 2C6.5 2 2 6.5 2 12c0 5 3.7 9.1 8.4 9.9v-7H7.9V12h2.5V9.8c0-2.5 1.5-3.9 3.8-3.9 1.1 0 2.2.2 2.2.2v2.5h-1.3c-1.2 0-1.6.8-1.6 1.6V12h2.8l-.4 2.9h-2.3v7C18.3 21.1 22 17 22 12c0-5.5-4.5-10-10-10z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"wp-block-social-link-label screen-reader-text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n\n<li class=\"wp-social-link wp-social-link-twitter  wp-block-social-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&#038;text=Journal%20of%20Tourism%2C%20Heritage%20%26%20Services%20Marketing&#038;tw_p=tweetbutton&#038;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3687\" class=\"wp-block-social-link-anchor\"><svg width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M22.23,5.924c-0.736,0.326-1.527,0.547-2.357,0.646c0.847-0.508,1.498-1.312,1.804-2.27 c-0.793,0.47-1.671,0.812-2.606,0.996C18.324,4.498,17.257,4,16.077,4c-2.266,0-4.103,1.837-4.103,4.103 c0,0.322,0.036,0.635,0.106,0.935C8.67,8.867,5.647,7.234,3.623,4.751C3.27,5.357,3.067,6.062,3.067,6.814 c0,1.424,0.724,2.679,1.825,3.415c-0.673-0.021-1.305-0.206-1.859-0.513c0,0.017,0,0.034,0,0.052c0,1.988,1.414,3.647,3.292,4.023 c-0.344,0.094-0.707,0.144-1.081,0.144c-0.264,0-0.521-0.026-0.772-0.074c0.522,1.63,2.038,2.816,3.833,2.85 c-1.404,1.1-3.174,1.756-5.096,1.756c-0.331,0-0.658-0.019-0.979-0.057c1.816,1.164,3.973,1.843,6.29,1.843 c7.547,0,11.675-6.252,11.675-11.675c0-0.178-0.004-0.355-0.012-0.531C20.985,7.47,21.68,6.747,22.23,5.924z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"wp-block-social-link-label screen-reader-text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-social-link wp-social-link-linkedin  wp-block-social-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&#038;url=https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3687\" class=\"wp-block-social-link-anchor\"><svg width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19.7,3H4.3C3.582,3,3,3.582,3,4.3v15.4C3,20.418,3.582,21,4.3,21h15.4c0.718,0,1.3-0.582,1.3-1.3V4.3 C21,3.582,20.418,3,19.7,3z M8.339,18.338H5.667v-8.59h2.672V18.338z M7.004,8.574c-0.857,0-1.549-0.694-1.549-1.548 c0-0.855,0.691-1.548,1.549-1.548c0.854,0,1.547,0.694,1.547,1.548C8.551,7.881,7.858,8.574,7.004,8.574z M18.339,18.338h-2.669 v-4.177c0-0.996-0.017-2.278-1.387-2.278c-1.389,0-1.601,1.086-1.601,2.206v4.249h-2.667v-8.59h2.559v1.174h0.037 c0.356-0.675,1.227-1.387,2.526-1.387c2.703,0,3.203,1.779,3.203,4.092V18.338z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"wp-block-social-link-label screen-reader-text\">LinkedIn<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3701\">&lt; Back to Volume 6, Issue 3, table of contents<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">a<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span style=\"color:#1b3fab\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Modeling and predicting foreign tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka: A comparison of three different methods<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5011-8221\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"15\" height=\"15\" class=\"wp-image-4454\" style=\"width: 15px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/orcid-1-e1603636867626.png\" alt=\"\"><\/a> <em><strong>Hemantha Premakumara Diunugala<\/strong>,&nbsp;Beijing Institute of Technology, China,<\/em> &amp; <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2855-9319\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"15\" height=\"15\" class=\"wp-image-4454\" style=\"width: 15px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/orcid-1-e1603636867626.png\" alt=\"\"><\/a> <em><strong>Claudel Mombeuil<\/strong>, Beijing Institute of Technology, China<\/em><br>Published online: 30 October 2020, JTHSM, 6(3), pp.3-13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>URN:&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/nbn-resolving.org\/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-69874-0\" target=\"_blank\">urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-69874-0<\/a>, DOI:&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.4055960\" target=\"_blank\">10.5281\/zenodo.4055960<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full-text download:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/vol6iss3\/6-3-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/PDF_Download_Logo-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-158\" width=\"44\" height=\"44\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Export reference:<\/strong><em><br><\/em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3714\" target=\"_blank\">BibTeX<\/a><span style=\"color:#ffffff\" class=\"has-inline-color\">,,<\/span><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3715\" target=\"_blank\">DataCite<\/a><span style=\"color:#ffffff\" class=\"has-inline-color\">,,<\/span><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3716\" target=\"_blank\">Dublin Core<\/a><span style=\"color:#ffffff\" class=\"has-inline-color\">,,<\/span><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mendeley.com\/import\/?url=https:\/\/zenodo.org\/record\/4055960\" target=\"_blank\">Mendeley<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cite as:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diunugala, H. P., &amp; Mombeuil, C. (2020). Modeling and predicting foreign tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka: A comparison of three different methods.&nbsp;<em>Journal of Tourism, Heritage &amp; Services Marketing, 6<\/em>(3), 3\u201313. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.4055960<\/p>\n\n\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/cdn.plu.mx\/widget-popup.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/plu.mx\/plum\/a\/?ssrn_id=3748093\" data-popup=\"right\" data-badge=\"true\" class=\"plumx-plum-print-popup plum-bigben-theme\" data-site=\"plum\" data-hide-when-empty=\"true\">Modeling and Predicting Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka: A Comparison of Three Different Methods<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3725\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/crossmark2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2066\" width=\"97\" height=\"20\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/crossmark2.png 470w, https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/crossmark2-300x62.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 97px) 100vw, 97px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Abstract:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Purpose<\/em><\/strong><em>: This study compares three different methods to predict foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) to Sri Lanka from top-ten countries and also attempts to find the best-fitted forecasting model for each country using five model performance evaluation criteria.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Methods<\/em><\/strong><em>: This study employs two different univariate-time-series approaches and one Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach to develop models that best explain the tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka from the top-ten tourist generating countries. The univariate-time series approach contains two main types of statistical models, namely Deterministic Models and Stochastic Models.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Results<\/em><\/strong><em>: The results show that Winter\u2019s exponential smoothing and ARIMA are the best methods to forecast tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the results show that the accuracy of the best forecasting model based on MAPE criteria for the models of India, China, Germany, Russia, and Australia fall between 5 to 9 percent, whereas the accuracy levels of models for the UK, France, USA, Japan, and the Maldives fall between 10 to 15 percent. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Implications<\/em><\/strong><em>: The overall results of this study provide valuable insights into tourism management and policy development for Sri Lanka. Successful forecasting of FTAs for each market source provide a practical planning tool to destination decision-makers.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Keywords:<\/strong> foreign tourist arrivals, winter\u2019s exponential smoothing, ARIMA, simple recurrent neural network, Sri Lanka<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>JEL Classification: <\/strong>C5, Z32, C45<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3850\">&lt; Previous article in Vol. 6, Iss. 3<\/a><span class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">aaaaaaaaaaa<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/?page_id=3688\">Next article in Vol. 6, Iss. 3 &gt;<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">a<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&lt; Back to Volume 6, Issue 3, table of contents a Modeling and predicting foreign tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka: A comparison of three different methods Hemantha Premakumara Diunugala,\u00a0Beijing Institute of Technology, China, &amp; Claudel Mombeuil, Beijing Institute of Technology, ChinaPublished online: 30 October 2020, JTHSM, 6(3), pp.3-13. URN:\u00a0urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-69874-0, DOI:\u00a010.5281\/zenodo.4055960 Full-text download: Export reference:BibTeX,,DataCite,,Dublin Core,,Mendeley [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-3687","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3687"}],"version-history":[{"count":30,"href":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3687\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6103,"href":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3687\/revisions\/6103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jthsm.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}